Canada’s Changing Immigration Landscape

A new series by the Center of Excellence on the Canadian Federation

Hi all, Charles Breton here.

I want to tell you more about the immigration series we've just launched.

Immigration has always been a central part of Canada’s story. The way people come to this country — and how Canadians feel about it — is shifting in important ways. Over the last two decades, temporary work and study permits have become main gateways to permanent residency. Nearly half of new permanent residents today first arrived as international students or temporary foreign workers, a profound change from a generation ago. 

This “two-step” process, whereby people work or study in Canada before applying to stay, can improve economic outcomes by giving newcomers and employers a chance to test the fit. But it also raises tough questions: Who gets left out when the opportunity to move to Canada requires first coming as a temporary resident? What happens when low-wage jobs become the key entry point to permanent immigration? 

At the same time, the scale and complexity of temporary migration have exploded. The number of temporary residents in Canada has tripled since 2010, reaching about three million in 2025. International students, once celebrated as “ideal immigrants,” are now caught in the crossfire of debates over housing costs, rising youth unemployment and shifting rules.

Public opinion has turned sharply: survey data in 2023 and 2024 suggests the proportion of people who say there is too much immigration to Canada now surpasses those who disagree with that statement. 

Against this backdrop of dramatic change, the Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation at the IRPP has partnered with two leading scholars in the field: Mireille Paquet is director of the Institute for Research on Migration and Society (IRMS) and research chair on the politics of immigration at Concordia University, and Irene Bloemraad is co-director of the Centre for Migration Studies at the University of British Columbia.  

Together, we are launching Canada’s Changing Immigration Landscape which brings fresh data, clear analysis and diverse perspectives to a complex discussion. Our goal is not only to explain how immigration is changing, but also to spark a more informed conversation about the complex choices that lie ahead.

What can you expect? The data and insights highlighted above come straight from the first wave of publications — two of which are already live. Each piece translates rigorous research into clear takeaways for policymakers, journalists and the wider public.  

Want to stay on top of new releases? If you’re reading this, you’ve already subscribed. But don’t keep it to yourself, share the newsletter and help broaden the conversation. 

Charles Breton

Executive Director, Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation

Check out our first two data briefs:

From Temporary to Permanent Residency: Recent Trends in Canada’s Two-Step Immigration Selection

Feng Hou – Statistics Canada

This brief includes insights on how nearly half of new permanent residents now transition from temporary status, with provinces emerging as key players in shaping economic immigration pathways.

Your support makes our research possible. Help us continue producing independent, high-quality research.

Scenes from our Industrial Policy Conference

What does it take to secure Canada’s economic future? Over the past two years, the IRPP has been tackling that question with an expert steering group. In September, it all came together in our landmark report and sold-out conference in Ottawa.

The conversations were clear and urgent: Canada needs a more strategic and disciplined approach to industrial policy if we want to rise to today’s challenges.

Some highlights from the day: 

→ Premier R.J. Simpson delivered a passionate keynote, calling the NWT "living proof" that reconciliation can be more than just words and can strenghten institutions, protect sovereignty, and boost the economy.

 

→ In our Decarbonizing Industry panel, Chris Bataille, Marisa Beck, Ralph Torrie, and Mahima Sharma, stressed that the global energy transition is moving ahead regardless of U.S. politics. It’s a huge economic opportunity. But to seize it, Canada must embrace an industrial policy that drives us to do new things that matter, rather than merely things we are good at. This means huge investments in interprovincial energy systems.  

 

→ Parliamentary Secretary Taleeb Noormohamed closed the day with a reminder: we need to build ecosystems to create and sustain innovation, rather than focusing myopically on individual projects

Dive into the highlights with recordings of the panels and keynote - we'll be releasing them gradually over the next few weeks.

👉 Dive deeper with our new report, Building for the Future: How Industrial Policy Can Strengthen Canada’s Economy and Sovereignty, the foundation for the debates that animated the day.

In the latest episode of Futureproofing Canada, R.J. Simpson, Premier of the Northwest Territories, joins us for a conversation about how the North can help shape Canada’s economic and security future.

Simpson highlights the region’s wealth of critical minerals and the importance of projects like the proposed Arctic Security Corridor to unlock new opportunities. He underscores the need for climate-resilient infrastructure, local workforce training, and strong partnerships with Indigenous governments to ensure development is both sustainable and inclusive.

Available wherever you get your podcasts!

Leadership + Politics + Trust?

The IRPP supported a two-day workshop at Acadia University on Political Leadership and Trust in Canada. Co-organizer Alex Marland, a Jarislowsky Chair in Trust and Political Leadership at Acadia and an IRPP board member, assembled some of Canada’s top scholars to discuss new research they are undertaking around the theme. IRPP President Jennifer Ditchburn moderated the workshop, as well as a public panel discussion featuring former Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter, former Nova Scotia cabinet minister Kelly Regan, veteran journalist Steve Murphy, and former Clerk of the Privy Council Michael Wernick.

PANEL | Barriers and Bridges: Reimagining Trade in the Federation

We’re hosting a panel in Quebec City on Wednesday, October 22, at the Morrin Centre, with Dr. Philippe Couillard, 31st Premier of Quebec; Professor Stéphane Paquin; and Me Maryse Picard, lawyer and former Executive Director of the Huron-Wendat Nation.

The conversation will focus on the future of internal trade in Canada, a debate that has intensified as governments seek to reduce barriers and respond to U.S. tariffs. The event also marks the launch of a new series of essays from the Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation, which will shed light on overlooked issues and propose concrete solutions to strengthen internal trade.

*Note that this event will be in French.

How to Escape the Fake: Making Good Policy in the Age of Misinformation

This year’s IRPP fall lecture features author and scholar Timothy Caulfield, one of North America’s foremost commentators on health and science misinformation and research ethics. His latest book, The Certainty Illusion, lifts the curtain on the forces contributing to our information chaos and unpacks why it’s so difficult — sometimes even for experts — to escape the fake.

Join us in Ottawa on November 18 for an evening of dialogue and networking with Canada’s public policy community.