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Functionary masthead - by KATHRYN MAY
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May 26, 2026    |  Sign up + past editions    |    Unsubscribe  

Hi all,

The public service is shrinking – so why is the wage bill bigger than ever?

 

The federal government is spending more on its workforce than ever. Workers just aren’t seeing it – in their paycheques, anyway.

 

The total compensation bill is at record levels. Pensions are up. Health, dental, and disability benefits are climbing steadily. The overall cost of keeping a public servant on the payroll has risen for years running. But Treasury Board's opening wage offer to unions is 3.5 per cent over four years – a raise that doesn’t come close to keeping pace with inflation.

 

So where is all that money going?

 

Let’s dig in.

 

Today:

$76 billion: And not likely to shrink.

First out the door?: It’s often the cheaper employees.

A big cost: Benefits, and they’re on the rise.

Six years of up, up, up: Federal disability claims.

Now who has the clout? It’s not 2023 anymore.

The cost of isolation: The total bill belongs to no one.

Four principles: And three messy considerations.

Yes, wages lagged: But those pay bumps….

Not botched, not forgotten: The CPP-enhancement saga.

 

FIRST, THE OFFER
And the full picture ….

After months of negotiations, talks with PSAC are now at a standstill. Treasury Board has tabled what the union is calling an “insulting” wage offer that is an effective pay cut once inflation is factored in. It’s been a long time since the government has offered an annual increase under one per cent.

 

The proposal includes:

  • 2.0 per cent in 2025
  • 0.5 per cent in 2026
  • 0.5 per cent in 2027
  • 0.5 per cent in 2028

The Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) tabled a proposal of 4.75 per-cent annual increases over three years, leaving a wide gap between the two sides.

A look at the full compensation bill offers some insight.

1 full compensation

$76 billion and climbing. Federal compensation topped $76 billion in 2024-25 after hitting $71.6 billion the previous year, says the Parliamentary Budget Office.

 

Where it goes from here is unclear, but those who track federal spending closely don’t expect the bill to shrink. Think of it this way: departments were already more than halfway to the government’s 40,000 job-cut target with 22,000 gone – mostly terms, students, casuals – when the wage bill hit that $76-billion mark. (The PBO measures costs per full-time equivalent, not headcount – so, for example, two part-time workers count as one FTE.)

 

Fewer workers, bigger bill. Many of those who left were at the cheaper, more flexible end of the workforce – typically the first out the door in a spending review. What’s left is a higher concentration of indeterminate employees: full-timers with pensions and benefits baked in. The PBO projected last year that indeterminate employees could rise to 87 per cent of the public service workforce – the highest proportion since 2015.

 

Every time a casual or term worker is cut and not replaced, the average cost per remaining employee goes up, even if overall headcount goes down. At the same time, the government is shifting people and resources toward Mark Carney’s priority departments – defence, border security, and national security. Losing and gaining at the same time.

 

The workforce is shrinking and expanding. It’s also getting more expensive per person. All three can happen at once. But workforce composition is only part of the story.

2 personal spending

Where the money is actually going. Treasury Board’s wage offer lands into a benefit-cost problem that’s been building since the pandemic. This is not unique to government – employer-sponsored benefit plans everywhere feel the strain. But the scale is significant for Canada’s largest employer.

3 - table c
4 - table b

  Source: TBS documents submitted to Senate national finance committee.

 

The Senate national finance committee has been quizzing Treasury Board officials on the rising costs of benefits.

 

The story the TBS numbers tell: the health and dental plans are growing at 9.9 per cent annually. Disability-plan costs are rising at eight per cent a year, driven largely by mental-health claims, which now account for more than half of all disability benefits. And then there’s the RCMP disability plan – a separate plan funded from the same Treasury Board envelope — growing at 22 per cent annually.

 

Benefit-plan membership has also grown 14 per cent since 2020 as the public service expanded under the Trudeau government. More members mean more claims, more expenditures. The workforce is now being cut – but benefit costs don’t shrink as quickly as headcount does. Retirees leave the payroll but they don’t leave the health and dental plans. The government continues to pay.

 

Drug costs are a growing part of the pressure. Ozempic, for example, is covered under the federal plan for diabetes – not weight loss – but it costs far more than the medications it’s replacing, and prescriptions are rising fast.

 

Six years and counting. The disability plan is under pressure from rising claims, especially mental health. A decade ago, then-PCO clerk Janice Charette made employee wellness and mental health a management priority — one that successive clerks have continued.

 

Today, nearly 60 per cent of disability claims are for mental-health conditions, with cancer a distant second. It’s not necessarily that people are sicker. Many argue the stigma around mental health is gone, so people come forward. Younger workers in particular don’t think twice about filing a mental-health claim the way an earlier generation might have.

 

Last year, public servants filed about 5,560 federal disability claims – a 9.3-per-cent increase over the previous year, the latest in a six-year stretch of record claim volumes. Sun Life’s actuary had already flagged the problem, projecting a significant loss for 2025 because claims growth was expected to outpace premiums and investment income.

 

Women are driving the trend, with nearly 75 per cent of approved mental-health claims. Women make up about 57 per cent of the public service, so their higher share partly reflects workforce composition – though the gap is wider than numbers alone explain.

 

Executives have a separate disability plan. Those numbers aren’t public.

 

The political calculation. The last piece of the compensation puzzle? Politics. The bargaining context has shifted dramatically since the last round of bargaining – and largely in the government’s favour.

 

The Carney government has a majority now. A weakened NDP has no leverage over the Liberals. The public service is absorbing 16,000 job losses and is facing another return-to-office order. Unions are heading into this round with far less clout than they had when they called the 2023 strike.

 

The fiscal story the government is trying to tell this year is simple: we are reducing the size and cost of the public service. PBO puts personnel spending at 54 per cent of federal operating costs. When more than half your operating budget is people, holding the line on wages is the most visible lever you have.

 

Whose bill is it? The benefit plans – health, dental, disability – are not set by government alone. They are negotiated with unions and delivered through third-party insurers such as Sun Life. But they are negotiated separately from wages and separately from pensions. That structure has long been flagged as a problem.

 

More than 20 years ago, former senior Treasury Board official James Lahey argued in a landmark compensation study that this fragmented approach “works against cost control.” Benefits negotiated here, wages there, pensions somewhere else – with no one responsible for the total bill.

 

“No longer should it be acceptable to discuss or consider one component of federal compensation in isolation from the others,” he wrote.

 

Lahey said weak co-ordination and uneven oversight have led government to pay more than necessary. The piecemeal approach has contributed to boom-and-bust swings in the size and cost of the public service over time, he added.

 

Under the Trudeau government, the workforce grew by more than 40 per cent. Now it’s being cut.

 

One of Lahey’s recommendations was to broaden collective bargaining so both sides are forced to make tradeoffs and share responsibility for the total compensation envelope . It’s a position PSAC has always supported. The government has never shown any interest.

 

Good luck with that. Treasury Board later adopted a policy framework for compensation built on four principles: fair pay relative to the private sector, internal equity between job categories, performance, and affordability. Simple enough.

 

But those four principles must then be balanced against three additional considerations: economic-policy goals, social-policy objectives, and public expectations and pressures. That means the tension between what workers demand, what the public expects, and what politicians want is baked into compensation policy – and ripe for disagreement.

 

Also, no workforce has a more complicated pay regime – think how it snarled Phoenix. Twenty-eight collective agreements, 17 unions, 72 job classifications. Make a change for one group and it upsets the apple cart internally – ripple effects everywhere.

 

So are they underpaid? Treasury Board reports that federal-sector wages increased 15.5 per cent between 2021 and 2025 – lagging 1.8 per cent behind the private sector. Don’t hear that too often. Small business has argued for years that federal workers are overpaid and out of step with the market.

5 - Over five years

 Source: TBS response to Senate committee Qs. 

 

But raises are only part of the story. Many public servants also receive annual increments as they move up the pay grid within their classification – pushing actual payroll costs higher than the negotiated wage increase alone. Take policy analysts: they receive a pay bump at each of the five levels in their classification. That’s before the rest of the package.

 

Factor in defined-benefit pensions – which are disappearing in the private sector – health and dental benefits growing at 9.9 per cent annually, job security, and leave entitlements better than many Canadians have, and the calculation changes completely.

 

And. finally, speaking of pensions......

 

THE CPP ENHANCEMENT

Nobody forgot: they knew. They left it

That CPP enhancement we tackled here in late April? Turns out nobody forgot, botched or overlooked anything after all. The government knew the CPP enhancement that began seven years ago wasn’t integrated with the public-service pension formula. It chose to leave it that way.

 

That misalignment meant public servants received a small pension boost beyond what the plan was designed to provide. Unions – strong supporters of the CPP enhancements – want to keep it that way.

 

“Treasury Board staff knew. Employee representatives knew. Everyone around the table knew,” said Simon Coakeley, a member of the public service pension advisory committee at the time. “The CPP enhancements were always going to change the integration with the public service pension — just like they did for every other defined-benefit plan. This wasn’t forgotten. It was discussed.”

 

The question that was never asked – and never put to unions or the advisory committee – was what to do about it. That decision was never made. It was left to someone else.

 

By all accounts, the Trudeau government generally avoided antagonizing federal unions – which at the time also happened to be negotiating damages for Phoenix pay-system foul-ups.

 

And it stayed that way until Mark Carney’s first budget picked it up as another way to save money.

 

The last time we wrote about CPP integration, the pension-advisory committee was locked in discussions over two options – neither of which had union support. But when word of those options leaked – or, depending on your view, when public servants simply learned what was being discussed about one of their most prized benefits – the committee abruptly cancelled its meetings and asked members to submit their preferences privately. Sources say unions opted for no change.

 

The process is still underway. Consultations continue and a recommendation to the minister is expected soon. Whether unions will have any meaningful say in the outcome remains to be seen.

-:-:-:-

 

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Kathryn May

A bit about me. I write The Functionary as part of my work covering and analyzing the federal public service for Policy Options, where I am the Accenture Fellow on the Future of the Public Service. I've been reporting on the public service for more than two decades, covering parliamentary affairs and politics for the Ottawa Citizen and iPolitics. My work has been recognized with a National Newspaper Award and a Canadian Online Publishing Award. 

 

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